Based on a model estimated over the period 1988 through 2012, the USDA projects the 2013 US average corn yield at 163.6 bushels per acre. The model incorporates trend, planting progress, and summer weather variables to explain average yield. The 2013 projection assumes normal planting progress, no extreme June dryness, and average summer weather. The forecast is higher than most other forecasts, including ours. Using a longer time period, and the application of a different weather model, our analysis points to a 2013 yield near 160 bushels.
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USDA’s 2013-14 Projections for Corn, Soybeans - The Bioenergy Site
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